About half of American households are forecast to spend less to heat their homes this winter than last. About 4 million households are forecast to spend 21% more.

That's the split in the federal government's 2026–27 Winter Fuels Outlook, released October 6 by the Energy Information Administration. Which side you land on comes down almost entirely to one thing: what's burning in your basement.

EIA's forecast for average household heating spending, November through March, as reported by Quartz:

Natural gas and propane homes are roughly half the country, and they come out ahead. Oil homes are about 3% of households, mostly in the Northeast, and they take the hit. EIA expects heating oil to average $5.26 a gallon over the winter, up 34%. Part of that price jump is offset by a milder winter forecast for the Northeast, which is why the bill is forecast to rise 21% rather than more.

Heating oil is a distillate, the same family of fuel as diesel. As we covered yesterday, diesel is at $6.30 a gallon nationally, up from $3.66 a year ago, largely because of the war with Iran. Heating oil is riding the same wave. In yesterday's September inflation report, the BLS fuel oil index was up 74.2% over the year.

The supply numbers make it worse. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year average in September. EIA expects them to stay 20% to 30% below normal all winter. EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey: "Households that rely on heating oil face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight."

Natural gas is a different story. It's priced separately from oil, so it hasn't followed oil higher. Storage is expected to enter the season 2% above the five-year average. Abbey again: "Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand."

Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates put the oil side more bluntly to CNBC: "The consumer, unfortunately, is going to be facing some severe sticker shock when the delivery company fills up their tank."

A 4% rise for electric heat sounds mild. The national average hides a regional split.

EIA forecasts wholesale electricity prices up 11% nationally this year. In PJM, the grid covering 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois plus Washington, D.C., wholesale prices are forecast up 41%. In the Pacific Northwest, they're forecast down 23%.

PJM is also where the data center argument is loudest. Its 2025/26 capacity auction, which sets what utilities pay to guarantee enough power, cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day for most of the region. The year before it was $28.92. A Rutgers study of household electric bills across 24 states found ZIP codes with a data center paid about $2 a month more, against an average bill of $164. That result isn't statistically robust, and at the utility level the study found no significant effect. The researcher's conclusion: "'not yet' is not the same as 'nothing to worry about.'"

If you heat with electricity in a PJM state, plan for more than 4%.

If you heat with oil: get your delivery price before the first cold snap, not after. Ask your supplier whether they offer a fixed price or a budget plan, and compare the per-gallon quote to EIA's $5.26 winter average. A quote well above that is worth shopping.

If you heat with natural gas: this is the rare piece of good news this fall. Don't let the $4 gas-pump headlines convince you your heating bill is going up too. They're different fuels.

If you heat with electricity in the Mid-Atlantic or Midwest: your utility's wholesale costs rose much faster than the national average. Check whether your state regulator has approved a rate increase for this winter.

If you own or manage rentals with heat included: oil-heated buildings in the Northeast are where this hits operating budgets. A 21% fuel increase on a heat-included lease comes straight out of the margin until renewal.

If you rent and pay your own heat: ask your landlord or utility what fuel your unit uses before you budget. Your neighbor's bill may tell you nothing about yours.

Weather decides most of this, and weather is the least predictable input. EIA expects temperatures in line with the past decade, but warns that "a strong El Niño could lead to different weather outcomes." A cold January in the Northeast would push the oil number well past 21%.

The forecast is also already a week old, and oil keeps moving. EIA's own Brent forecast for the fourth quarter is $105 a barrel, $14 higher than it was a month earlier. If the war eases, heating oil could come in under forecast. If it escalates, over.

And these are averages. A drafty farmhouse and a new condo on the same fuel won't see the same bill.

Claim: Heating oil will average at or above $5.00 a gallon in EIA's weekly residential price survey for the first week of December 2026.

Stated confidence: 65% · Verification date: December 9, 2026 (EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update) · Status: OPEN

What would make us wrong: a meaningful drop in diesel prices before December, from a ceasefire, a supply deal or a faster-than-expected rebuild of East Coast inventories.

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