Regular gas averaged $4.33 a gallon nationally this morning, according to AAA. A year ago it was $3.08. Diesel is $6.30, up from $3.66.

So what has the war with Iran, which began February 28, cost the average American household? Depending on whose number you read this week, it's $854, more than $1,000, or $2,000.

All three come from credible sources. None of them are lying. They're measuring different things, and the difference matters if you're trying to figure out what this has actually done to your budget.

$853.76 is the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy's running tally, current as of October 13. It counts higher gasoline and diesel prices only. The baseline is EIA's pre-war retail prices, adjusted for the normal seasonal pattern over the last decade. ITEP projects it will reach $1,087.73 by the end of fall.

More than $1,000 comes from Brown University's Iran War Energy Cost Tracker, as of October 12. UC Berkeley economist Lucas Davis reviewed its method this week. It also covers only gasoline and diesel, a combined $130 billion nationally, but its baseline is the AAA price on the day the war began. By that measure, gas is running $1.37 a gallon above where it otherwise would be, and diesel $2.60.

$2,000 is Moody's latest estimate, reported by CNN on October 13. Five weeks earlier, on September 10, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told Fox Business the figure was $860, based on $115 billion in extra gasoline, diesel and jet fuel costs divided across households. The newer number appears to count more than fuel. We couldn't access CNN's full article to confirm exactly what was added, so treat the $2,000 as the broadest of the three and the least transparent.

Two choices drive almost all of the gap.

The starting point. To measure what the war cost, you have to guess what prices would have done without it. ITEP builds a seasonal path from ten years of history. Brown starts from the February 28 pump price. Davis puts it plainly: "There is no perfect way to do this, as oil prices are inherently volatile." He also notes that Brown's tracker blames the war for every price change since February, including effects from Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and the UAE leaving OPEC. That pushes its number up.

What counts. The fuel-only figures miss the price of everything that moves by truck. That's why diesel matters more than its share of the pump suggests. By ITEP's count, only about half of every $100 the war added to fuel bills is paid directly at the pump. The rest shows up in what you pay for groceries, deliveries and services. Moody's broader number tries to capture some of that.

So the honest answer is this. About $850 to $1,000 is what you've paid at the pump. The $2,000 figure is an estimate of what you've paid everywhere.

On a 15-gallon fill-up, today's AAA price costs about $19 more than the same fill a year ago. Using Brown's war-only gap of $1.37 a gallon, about $21 of every fill-up is the war.

Fill up once a week and that's roughly $1,000 to $1,100 a year from one car. A two-car household that drives a lot can pass the national average without trying.

This morning's September inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows where it's landing. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September alone and are up 34.2% over the year. BLS says gasoline accounted for more than half of the month's overall increase. Energy is up 20.4%, and fuel oil 74.2%. Overall inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4% in August. Prices excluding food and energy rose 2.6%, so most of the jump is still fuel.

If you commute by car: your number is probably higher than $854. The national figure averages in households that barely drive. Multiply your weekly gallons by $1.26 to get your own increase over last year.

If you run a small business with trucks or deliveries: diesel is your number, not gas. At $2.60 a gallon above the pre-war path, a work truck burning 30 gallons a week is about $78 a week more, over $4,000 a year.

If you heat with oil: heating oil is made from the same stock as diesel, and it's the next bill to land. We'll have the federal winter heating forecast tomorrow.

If you don't drive much: you're still paying. Roughly half the cost reaches you through prices on everything else, which is why the broad estimate is so much higher than the pump estimates.

If you commute by car: your number is probably higher than $854. The national figure averages in households that barely drive. Multiply your weekly gallons by $1.25 to get your own increase over last year.

The pump-only figures may also overstate the cost a little. Davis notes they assume people bought the same amount of fuel, when higher prices make some drive less.

And the $2,000 figure is the one most likely to be repeated and the hardest to audit. Until the full method is public, it's an estimate from a credible economist, not a measured fact.

Claim: ITEP's per-household war fuel cost will pass $1,000 on or before November 30, 2026. It rose about $5.50 between October 12 and 13, and at that pace it crosses in early November.

Stated confidence: 70% · Verification date: November 30, 2026 · Status: OPEN

And the $2,000 figure is the one most likely to be repeated and the hardest to audit. Until the full method is public, it's an estimate from a credible forecaster, not a measured fact.

This newsletter is the free version of what I do: take a number everyone is repeating, find out whether it holds, and show the work — including when the work shows we missed.

If there's a claim you keep seeing, about prices, your budget or your market, reply with it. I'll tell you whether the source supports it and what I couldn't verify.

cokas.io — no sales call, ever.

Every prediction in The Pattern Brief carries a verification date and is revisited in a future edition — including this one.