Voters in seven states are deciding 12 statewide property tax measures today: Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming. A thirteenth, Louisiana's business-inventory amendment, was defeated in May. Ballotpedia counts 58 statewide property tax measures from 2020 through 2025. Voters approved 45 of them, or 77.6%.

The ads all say "lower property taxes," but the measures work on different parts of the bill. A property tax bill is four numbers multiplied together, and each measure changes one of them. Which number it changes decides whether your bill falls, whether it rises more slowly, or whether it just lands on your neighbor, your tenant, or the next person to buy your house.

Every property tax bill works out to roughly this:

(Assessed value − exemptions) × tax rate = your bill. All the bills in a jurisdiction add up to the levy, which is the total the government collects.

Today's measures each pull one lever:

1. Exemptions take a fixed amount or a percentage off your taxable value. Four measures do this: Florida Amendment 3, Wyoming Initiative 1, and Louisiana's senior and surviving-spouse amendments.

2. Assessment caps limit how fast your taxable value can grow each year, whatever the market does. Florida's non-homestead provision, Oklahoma State Question 847, and Louisiana's income-limit freeze work this way.

3. Levy limits cap how much the government's total collections can grow. North Carolina's amendment is the only one on the ballot.

4. Rate authority decides who can raise the rate, and when. Louisiana's Amendment 2 is the one to watch here, and it points the other way from the rest.

The key fact: only a levy limit caps the total. Exemptions and assessment caps shrink the tax base, but the government still sets the rate. If it needs the same revenue, the rate goes up, and the people who didn't get the exemption pay more.

Florida Amendment 3 raises the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, indexed to inflation from 2029. Most Florida homesteads now get about $50,000 off for non-school levies. That is two $25,000 exemptions, and the second applies only to value between $50,000 and $75,000.

Here is how that works on a hypothetical home with a $400,000 assessed value and a non-school rate of 12 mills ($12 per $1,000):

That saves $2,400, but only if the rate stays at 12 mills. Legislative staff estimated the amendment would cut local revenue by $4.6 billion in fiscal 2027-28 and $8.4 billion in 2028-29. Local governments cover a gap that size in one of three ways: higher rates, service cuts, or other fees. Florida caps most local rates at 10 mills per taxing authority, so places already near the cap have less room to raise the rate and more pressure to cut.

The amendment does three other things:

State Sen. Shevrin Jones put the opponents' case in one line: "This is not a tax relief. This is a tax shift — you might not pay it on this, but you're going to pay it on that."

Who comes out ahead depends on where you sit. Long-time homesteaders with modest assessed values gain the most. New arrivals wait five years. Renters get no exemption and pay through their landlords, although the 5% cap does slow how fast their buildings' assessments can rise. A buyer pays tax on market value from the first year, because Florida resets a homestead's assessment when it sells.

Florida amendments need 60% to pass. The campaign money is lopsided: $21.5 million for, $1.8 million against.

Wyoming Initiative 1 would exempt 50% of a primary residence's assessed value. It is the state's first citizen initiative in three decades and its first ever on taxes. Last year Wyoming already enacted a 25% exemption on the first $1 million of value.

Supporters frame it as keeping retirees in their homes. State Rep. Liz Storer said it "will help rich people the most at the expense of Wyoming's kids." The arithmetic supports her point about who benefits most. A flat percentage exemption is worth more on a bigger house. Half off a $1.2 million home saves twice as much as half off a $600,000 home.

The money runs opposite to Florida's: about $15,000 for, $2.3 million against.

State Question 847 lowers the annual growth cap on taxable value from 5% to 4% for most property, and from 3% to 1.75% for homesteads and farmland, starting in 2027.

The catch is for seniors. Today the constitution freezes the taxable value of homesteads owned by qualifying people 65 and older. SQ 847 keeps the freeze only for seniors at or below median income. Above that, growth is allowed in tiers from 0.35% to 1.75% a year. A senior homeowner above median income would go from a freeze to slow growth. Everyone else gets a slower cap.

Assessment caps have a side effect that shows up years later. When market values outrun the cap, long-time owners pay tax on a value well below market, and a buyer pays tax on the full price. That gap is a reason not to move, which keeps homes off the market.

The North Carolina amendment would require the legislature to pass laws limiting how much local property tax levies can grow, "which may include exceptions." It is the only measure today that limits total collections, not one group's share.

It also sets no number. The cap and its exceptions would be decided later by the legislature. If you live in North Carolina, the vote that will matter most for your bill comes in a future legislative session, not today.

Louisiana has five measures on the ballot. Amendment 2 is the one people tend to misread. It would let local taxing bodies, under set procedures, raise rates after a reassessment as long as they stay at or below rates voters previously approved. A "yes" makes it easier for revenue to grow after values are reset.

From 2020 through 2025, voters approved 19 of 20 homeowner-exemption measures (95%), 9 of 14 assessment-limit measures (64%), and 0 of 2 rate-authority measures.

If you own your home: work out your own bill with the four levers. Then ask what your county or city will do with the rate if the measure passes. Your savings depend on that answer.

If you rent: none of today's exemptions apply to you. What matters is whether your local government raises rates to make up lost revenue. Your landlord's tax bill shows up at your lease renewal.

If you're buying: in Florida and Oklahoma, the seller's tax bill is not yours. Price your bill on full market value from the first year.

If you hold local bonds or underwrite rentals: a revenue cut of the size Florida's staff estimated shows up in budget workshops first and rate decisions later. Track the rate decisions, not the vote.

Exemptions and caps are blunt, but they are not meaningless. Florida's 1992 homestead cap was designed to keep long-time owners from being taxed out of homes whose market value had soared, and it does that. Collections have also grown fast. DeSantis said local property tax revenue "nearly doubled in the past seven years." If that is right, some of the lost revenue could come out of growth that has already happened, without anyone else paying more.

Some measures are narrow by design. Louisiana's surviving-spouse transfer and its income-limit increase target specific households, not the whole tax base.

Claim: If Florida Amendment 3 passes, at least one of Moody's, S&P Global Ratings or Fitch will publish a comment, report or outlook action by January 31, 2027 that calls Amendment 3 a credit negative for Florida local governments.

Stated confidence: 65% · Verification date: January 31, 2027 · Status: OPEN (void if Amendment 3 fails)

What would make us wrong: the agencies treat the $4.6 billion first-year loss as manageable inside existing reserves and rate headroom, and wait for adopted 2027-28 budgets before commenting.

This newsletter is the free version of what I do: take the number on the mailer, rebuild it from the source, and show what holds up.

If a measure on your ballot or a line on your tax bill doesn't add up, reply with it. I'll trace which lever it pulls and who pays.

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